RePath Round Up--Lowest Murder Rate Ever???
Plus, sharks in the sky, Diddy's standing O, and a new Manson release
Murder-less Nation: Whether you credit Trump, enigmas that never age, Coldplay, tariffs, Zohran Mamdani, climate change, the WNBA, Robotaxis, or the return of Oasis, the United States is poised to record its lowest murder rate in history. The current rate is down about 21% from last year across our 30 most murderous cities, which follows two years of similarly decreasing rates. The three year decline is overcoming the COVID-era murder spike from 2020 to 2022 [insert mRNA joke here] and is trending towards the lowest murder year in history. At this point in the year, only Chicago has posted over 100 murders and 25 of the top 30 murder cities are reporting declining murder rates.
Who knows what will happen when RFK, Jr. takes away our red dye No. 40, but the trends are currently trending and it may be safer than ever in the USA..
Empty Buildings in the Windy City: Whatever the true connection between education outcomes and criminal behavior, it cannot be good when schools are empty and students can’t read or do math. In Chicago, only 14% of high school students meet proficiency standards for math and reading. And those are the students who show up. In an eye-opening investigation, ProPublica has revealed that city schools are increasingly vacant. About 150 different schools are operating at less than 50% capacity and 47 schools are less than 1/3 full. While fewer students are showing up for school, the city now spends an astonishing $18,700 per student to run buildings that it considers “well-utilized,” and over $50,000 per student for nearly empty buildings. In the most extreme example, Frederick Douglass Academy High School currently has only 28 students and a per-student cost of $93,000. This is about 50% higher than the tuition and fees expense for the most expensive universities in the United States.
And it’s not just the buildings. While the city faced lower and lower enrollments during the Covid era, it used federal Covid funds to add 7,500 new full-time positions over the past four years. Douglass High School, for instance, now has 27 employees for 28 students. While the teachers union continues to advocate for thousands of new school staff positions and the aged buildings become more and more vacant, the district has a current budget deficit of $500,000,000. If results matter, it appears that the district currently spends about $220,000 annually per student who is proficient in math and reading.
Electronic Monitoring for the Win? A new study in the Journal of Criminal Justice supports the idea of early release with significant restrictions. Researchers followed 4,212 people convicted of nonviolent offenses in Utah—half released early to community-based electronic monitoring, half kept behind bars—and tracked them for a full year post-release. The result? People sent home under supervision were 18% less likely to commit a new felony and 9% more likely to be formally employed compared to their prison-bound twins. The study found no uptick in absconding or technical violations. The costs for restricted release are 10x less than incarceration.
The feds are on the same track. The Federal Bureau of Prisons has created a new task charged with a more fulsome implementation of the First Step Act to increase the proper use of home detention and residential reentry centers over incarceration.
Text Reminders for the Win?: A randomized control trial out of Santa Clara County demonstrates that the incredibly low-cost use of text reminders for court dates can produce meaningful results. Researchers tested four variations of text message reminders—including simple appointment alerts, plan-making prompts, and moral appeals—on over 5,700 pretrial clients. The outcome? A 21% drop in failures to appear and 23% fewer jail days served, with no documented rise in new criminal charges.
At a Probation Office?: A California man entered a probation office in San Joaquin County, California last week with a gas can and a lighter. He was able to enter the building and actually light a probation officer on fire. Other personnel were able to subdue the arsonist and put out the fire. The officer suffered severe, but not life-threatening burns while the suspect has been charged with attempted murder.
Stranger Stuff:
28 Seconds Later: Florida man survived alligator attack while swimming across a lake, charged sheriff’s deputies with garden shears (Fiskars, which are the best), tried to break into a car, got tased twice, tried to grab a gun from the patrol vehicle, and died when two deputies open fire on him.
More Florida: Man marks birthday, independence day by doing meth, stealing Conch Tour Train, picking up riders, picking up three felony charges, and earning $50,000 bond.
Also in Florida on July 4th: 3 men were arrested in Florida on July 4th for stealing church vans and using them to rip ATMs out of the ground and carry them away.
JAWS, fifty years later: A hammerhead shark fell from the sky onto a disc golf course in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Witnesses say the small shark was dropped by an overhead osprey, but that’s what they want you to believe.
Hands Together for Diddy: Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs received a standing ovation from inmates when he returned to the federal lock up in Brooklyn after mostly beating sex trafficking charges in federal court.
Death to Pigs: Manson murderer Patricia Krenwinkel, who participated in Sharon Tate’s murder, stabbed Abigail Folger more than 2 dozen times, wrote “Death to Pigs” on the walls with her victim’s blood, and carved an X into her own forehead for her trial has been recommended for parole in California.
